Developing and internally validating a prediction model for total knee replacement surgery in patients with osteoarthritis

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to develop and internally validate a clinical algorithm for use in general practice that predicts the probability of total knee replacement (TKR) surgery within the next five years for patients with osteoarthritis. The purpose of the model is to encourage early uptake of first-line treatment strategies in patients likely to undergo TKR and to provide a cohort for the development and testing of novel interventions that prevent or delay the progression to TKR. Method: Electronic health records (EHRs) from 201,462 patients with osteoarthritis aged 45 years and over from 483 general practices across Australia were linked with records from the Australian..